California, a battleground State?
The Presidential race here is a foregone conclusion, but not control of Congress. Republicans are looking to keep a majority in lower house, and so keep a handle on their backstop to President Obama’s will, should he win a second term. Meanwhile, for Democrats there’s a slim chance they could come away from November 6th with control of both the legislative and Executive branches on the Federal Government.
And what happens in California could decide which vision come true.
That’s because of redistricting. There have been major shifts for representatives trying to keep their jobs, and challengers trying to take them.
Let’s crunch some numbers:
To get a majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats need to pick-up 25 seats. That’s the magic number. 25.
They can’t get all 25 in California. At best they could get is say, ten. But een that’s not very realistic. In the backrooms strategy sessions in Washington, they’re counting on a pick-up of 4-6 seats in California’s Congressional Delegation.
Two of those seats are right here in our area. But meanwhile, there are another two seats here with incumbent Democrats in tough races. They’ll have to hold-on for their party to get a net gain.
In Sacramento, District 7 Democrats see Republican incumbent Dan Lungren as vulnerable. Ami Bera could be a pick-up as they build toward those 25 seats.
But just to the South, in the 9th District, Democrat Jerry McNerney will need to fend off the youngest Congressional Challenger this year… and ever. 25 year-old Ricky Gill even got a little podium time at the Republican National Convention.
Got on down Highway 99 a little father, and you’ll find Republican Jeff Denham fighting to keep his seat against challenger Jose Hernanez in the 10th District. Democrats are hoping the latino vote could put them over the top for a seat pick-up there.
But to the West, in the 3rd District, Jon Garamendi would have to hold his seat against Republican Challenger Kim Vann. There’s lots of money coming in from Washington to fund that race on both sides, and races in all these battleground districts.