SACRAMENTO, Calif. (KTXL) — A new report released by a nonprofit research and technology group is working to define America’s climate risk.
First Street Foundation, a Brooklyn-based nonprofit climate research group released its wildfire model which gave a closer look at the risk of individual properties across the country.
The model allows you to enter a home’s address and see the risk the property faces. The fire risk over the next 30 years in Sacramento is considered moderate, but for some parts in Natomas, the risk is major.
“You’re already seeing in May we are getting more fires than normal, and it’s not a good sign,” said a local firefighter.
A new report suggests that the wildfire risk on the West Coast is growing for some communities.
“People are buying, selling and renting homes and deciding where to live without understanding what risk really is,” said Dr. Ed Kearns with First Street Foundation.
The model shows the potential wildfire risk ranging from minimal to high possibility.
“Of those 100 million simulations, we get about 9 to 10 million that grows to a model that is worth tracking and describing. We represent the fire hazard of three different variables: fire probability, fire intensity, and also ember speed,” Kerns explained.
The nonprofit said it gathered leading experts from fire, weather and climatology and analyzed data over the past years to determine properties’ wildfire risk probability.
“As probability annual grow and the likelihood from climate change grows so too does that likelihood as you have longer-term exposure. When you own a home for 30 years, you not only want to look at it from an annual risk but how does that compound over time,” Kerns said. “That’s what the first graph shows you. This home has a 32% chance of being in a wildfire over a 30-year period.”
The group has done models for flooding before, and they now turned their attention to wildfires because they believe the damage continues to grow each year.
“We already know wildfires are significant in the West, it’s high. There’s a higher likelihood in the west, there are more properties and a higher fire factor of course. One of the things that is occurring over time, we are seeing dramatic growth across the Southeast and up the East Coast,” said Dr. Porter.
Cal Fire has tips on defensible space on its website.